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Democrats are heading towards an even heavier defeat than previously forecast in November's midterm elections for Congress, political analysts say. Such an outcome promises big trouble not just for President Obama, but also for Republican leaders as they struggle to run what is likely to be an unruly majority on Capitol Hill.

There has long been scant doubt that, barring a swift and improbable upturn in the economy, Republicans will pick up the 39 extra seats they need to regain control of the House of Representatives they lost in 2006. Now, polls say, they are on track to do better still, and have a reasonable chance of winning back the Senate as well.

The respected Cook Political Report reckons that no less than 68 of the 256 House seats currently held by Democrats are at "substantial risk", compared to 58 in June, with, at most, 10 Republican seats in danger. A similar picture emerges from the latest "Crystal Ball" survey by Professor Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia, which projects a net gain for Republicans of 47 seats, translating into a comfortable majority of 226 to 209.

In the Senate, the Republican target of a gain of 10 to overturn the current 59-41 Democratic majority, also appears to be inching closer. Analysts now believe Republicans could pick up a net eight or nine seats – and if everything continues to fall their way, they could hit the required 10.

The party got off to a sensational start in 2010, with Scott Brown's shock victory in the Massachusetts seat long held by the late Edward Kennedy. Today, as voter dissatisfaction hardens, two-term senator Barbara Boxer is in a desperately close race with her Republican opponent Carly Fiorina, the former Hewlett Packard chief executive, in normally solidly Democratic California. Another example is Wisconsin, the widely respected Democratic incumbent Russ Feingold is now trailing his most likely Republican challenger in November.

August has tended to be a bad month for Mr Obama. In 2008, he suffered a major wobble in his ultimately victorious White House campaign against John McCain, while in 2009 he lost control of the health care debate as rowdy Tea Party-dominated "town hall" meetings made all the headlines.

If anything, this summer has been worse still, as the economic recovery on which Democrats were pinning their hopes has fizzled. "Successes" for the administration, like the end of combat operations in Iraq, pass largely unnoticed. With unemployment stuck close to 10 per cent, and fears of a double-dip recession growing daily, Mr Obama is being pilloried by Republicans as a profligate "big government" Democrat whose policies have succeeded only in increasing a deficit for which voters now blame this president, rather than the once-reviled George W Bush.

drive from www.independent.co.uk