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Democrats are heading towards an even heavier defeat than previously forecast in November's midterm elections for Congress, political analysts say. Such an outcome promises big trouble not just for President Obama, but also for Republican leaders as they struggle to run what is likely to be an unruly majority on Capitol Hill.

There has long been scant doubt that, barring a swift and improbable upturn in the economy, Republicans will pick up the 39 extra seats they need to regain control of the House of Representatives they lost in 2006. Now, polls say, they are on track to do better still, and have a reasonable chance of winning back the Senate as well.

The respected Cook Political Report reckons that no less than 68 of the 256 House seats currently held by Democrats are at "substantial risk", compared to 58 in June, with, at most, 10 Republican seats in danger. A similar picture emerges from the latest "Crystal Ball" survey by Professor Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia, which projects a net gain for Republicans of 47 seats, translating into a comfortable majority of 226 to 209.

In the Senate, the Republican target of a gain of 10 to overturn the current 59-41 Democratic majority, also appears to be inching closer. Analysts now believe Republicans could pick up a net eight or nine seats – and if everything continues to fall their way, they could hit the required 10.

The party got off to a sensational start in 2010, with Scott Brown's shock victory in the Massachusetts seat long held by the late Edward Kennedy. Today, as voter dissatisfaction hardens, two-term senator Barbara Boxer is in a desperately close race with her Republican opponent Carly Fiorina, the former Hewlett Packard chief executive, in normally solidly Democratic California. Another example is Wisconsin, the widely respected Democratic incumbent Russ Feingold is now trailing his most likely Republican challenger in November.

August has tended to be a bad month for Mr Obama. In 2008, he suffered a major wobble in his ultimately victorious White House campaign against John McCain, while in 2009 he lost control of the health care debate as rowdy Tea Party-dominated "town hall" meetings made all the headlines.

If anything, this summer has been worse still, as the economic recovery on which Democrats were pinning their hopes has fizzled. "Successes" for the administration, like the end of combat operations in Iraq, pass largely unnoticed. With unemployment stuck close to 10 per cent, and fears of a double-dip recession growing daily, Mr Obama is being pilloried by Republicans as a profligate "big government" Democrat whose policies have succeeded only in increasing a deficit for which voters now blame this president, rather than the once-reviled George W Bush.

drive from www.independent.co.uk

An abortion hotline which has been set up in Pakistan is facing violent opposition. Islamic groups and political parties have condemned the hotline, which was launched yesterday, as "anti-Islamic" and "colonial", even though it will save the lives of thousands of women who die each year in backstreet abortion clinics. They have warned the organisers that they are at risk of reprisals.

The hotline, set up by a collection of women's groups in Pakistan and the Dutch pro-choice group Women on Waves, advises women how to use a drug to induce miscarriage safely and aims to reduce the estimated 890,000 unsafe illegal abortions performed in Pakistan every year.

"There will be very strong opposition," said Ahsan Iqbal, of the Pakistan Muslim League. "This could create misuse. It cannot be done as free choice under our law and our religion."

Access to abortion in Pakistan is very limited. Forbidden under Islamic law unless the mother's life is in danger, terminating a pregnancy carries a massive social stigma in the country, which is 97 per cent Muslim. As a result, a flourishing trade in backstreet abortion clinics has developed.

Figures from the Population Council of Pakistan show that the country has one of the highest rates of maternal mortality in the world, with 320 women dying for every 100,000 live births – compared to 13 per 100,000 in the UK. The Guttmacher Institute, which researches sexual and reproductive health, estimates that as many as one in six deaths are a result of illegal abortions.

"We want to save women's lives," said Gulalai Ismail, founder of the Pakistani women's group Aware Girls, which is helping to set up the hotline. "We are empowering women, and trying to give them information to help them take control of their bodies. Any groups which try to help women will have problems with extremist and fundamentalist groups. Ninety-nine per cent of clerics will oppose this."

As well as the hotline, trained Pakistani staff will offer abortion information in communities in rural Pakistan, particularly in the tribal areas of the North-West Frontier Province, where opposition is expected to be fiercest.

Massoud Shadjareh, chairman of the Islamic Human Rights Commission, warned the organisers that they risked reprisals. "To go against the majority like this might be seen sympathetically in the West, but it will be counterproductive and will create huge problems. At best, they are misguided, at worst they are trying to provoke," he said. "It is part of the colonial idea that the West's way is the best, and that is not the case."

Women on Waves, created in 1999 by the Dutch physician Rebecca Gomperts, operates a controversial "abortion boat", which offers free terminations in international waters around countries where abortion is illegal or difficult to obtain. In 2004, the ship was prevented from entering Portuguese waters after the government blocked its way with a warship; on another occasion, a flotilla of anti-abortion campaigners surrounded the vessel when it docked in the Spanish port of Valencia, and hundreds of protesters lined the streets. However, there are no plans for it to moor off the coast of Pakistan.

drive from www.independent.co.uk

Best buy: Javier Hernandez (Manchester United)

In 2003, when Chelsea dazzled the transfer market by spending £100m in a single summer, Sir Alex Ferguson went out and bought Cristiano Ronaldo for a modest £12m. Seven years later, as his noisy neighbours blot out the sun with their spending, the United manager acquired a little-known Mexican striker, whose father and grandfather had both played international football – Ferguson, as a horse-racing man, appreciates pedigree. Hernandez shone at the World Cup and has displayed a touching combination of humility and enthusiasm at United.

Bravest buy: Titus Bramble (Sunderland)
Bramble is a nice guy and a fine defender but, as Steve Bruce kept wearily pointing out during their time at Wigan, every error he makes invariably seems to lead to a goal that is replayed over and over again for the amusement of Alan Hansen on Match of the Day. He was also a prominent member of the young Newcastle side Sir Bobby Robson built; so for both player and manager this was the summer's ballsiest piece of business.

Biggest risk: Bebe (Manchester United)

On the face of it, to pay £7.4m for a 20-year-old who has yet to kick a ball in the Portuguese top flight, whom you have never seen play even on video and who was not fit enough for reserve football is a real punt by Ferguson. However, he comes on the recommendation of Carlos Queiroz, who was right about Nani and very right about Ronaldo. We probably won't know the answer for another three years.

Best value: Craig Bellamy (Cardiff City)

Seeing him return to his native city put you in mind of Kevin Keegan signing for Newcastle as a player in 1982. It had a touch of romance to it – not a noun you would ordinarily associate with Bellamy – while the fact that Manchester City are paying most of his wages made this an exceptional deal for Cardiff. Keegan took two years to see Newcastle promoted; Bellamy will hope to return to the Premier League in half that time.

Most surprising signing: Joe Cole (Liverpool)

As wedded to London as Tower Bridge, it seemed inevitable he would turn up at Arsenal. Instead, Cole arrived at Anfield, energising the opening days of Roy Hodgson's regime with his enthusiasm, although getting himself sent off and missing a penalty in his first few games for Liverpool was not how he imagined it. Crystal Palace signing a 37-year-old Edgar Davids just after coming out of administration seemed crazy. Employing him as a left-back in the 3-0 defeat at Scunthorpe at the weekend represents a form of madness.

Least surprising signing: James Milner (Manchester City)

Were you amazed to see James Milner in a City shirt? Neither was Martin O'Neill.

Best overall business: Birmingham City

Unaccustomed as Birmingham are to public spending, Alex McLeish has invested the first slice of Carson Yeung's transfer budget pretty well. Few imagined Alexander Hleb would ever don a Birmingham shirt while Sir Alex Ferguson rates Ben Foster the best English goalkeeper in the Premier League. The giant Serb striker Nikola Zigic and the Spartak Moscow captain, Martin Jiranek, complete a powerful-looking roster.

drive from www.independent.co.

Police took the unusual decision yesterday to step in and deny increasingly lurid reports about the private life of the murdered GCHQ officer Gareth Williams.

Scotland Yard sources said that reports of bondage equipment found at his flat and a "ritualistic" arrangement of his possessions were untrue. A spokesman later added that the detective team investigating the death, had clarified the accuracy of the reports "out of respect" for Mr Williams' relatives.

Mr William's body was found stuffed into a holdall in the bathroom on his home in Pimlico, central London, last week. Since the discovery suggestions regarding Mr Williams' private life and sexual tendencies have been rife.

Reports included the suggestion that the 30-year-old was, variously, a male escort or a transvestite; that bondage equipment had been found at his flat; and that a dozen mobile phone SIM cards had been laid out in a ritualistic manner in his home.

His family said they feared there was a smear campaign. Mr Williams' uncle told newspapers: "The family are concerned it may have been an attempt to put false, unkind details about Gareth's private life into the public domain to diminish him and take attention away from the security services he worked so loyally for."

All police have previously confirmed is that they are investigating a "suspicious death" – preferring that term to murder – and that the last known sighting of Mr Williams was in London on Sunday 15 August, eight days before his body was found. Initial reports said he had not been seen for a fortnight.

His body was discovered when police were called to check on him after a colleague voiced concerns.

Those scant details aside, little is known about precisely when, why or how Mr Williams died. As is usual in such cases, police have not confirmed any potential motive they are investigating. Early speculation suggested that Mr Williams' job may have been the reason for his death. But latterly, the focus has shone more on his personal life. Last week a pathologist was unable to establish a cause of death. Toxicology tests will determine if he was poisoned, or if drugs or alcohol were a factor. But the report suggested he was not stabbed.

On Saturday night Channel 4 News claimed that the initial police report had stated that Mr Williams' death was a "neat job", suggesting that he was killed by someone who knew what they were doing.

There are also suggestions that Scotland Yard detectives have become frustrated with the interference of colleagues in the intelligence agencies who are not used to their own organisations or employees being the subject of investigations. Police are also said to be investigating payments and withdrawals of thousands of pounds into and out of Mr Williams' bank account in the days leading up to his death.

drive from www.independent.co.uk